Consensus PnL -$13K · win rate 60% (21958–14476, n=36434) · was PM monthly #961 · holds 145 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-13.0K
Record
21958W / 14476L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 36434 settled
Batting Avg
60.5%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1144
Source
PM monthly #961
Trades
4,885
Markets
51,342
Volume
$3.5M
Top consensus positions
145 in listed consensus markets · 86 of 145 on the consensus side (59%)- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?No $307 · now 57¢ · in at 34¢with the consensus (61% of 48)
- AS Gubbio vs. Vis Pesaro 1898: O/U 2.5Over $299 · now 13¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Under)
- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-11-01?No $294 · now 51¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Egersunds IK win on 2026-11-01?Yes $280 · now 47¢ · in at 51¢against the consensus (No)
- Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 5.5Under $231 · now 100¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (43% of 7)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to ScoreNo $215 · now 73¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will CD La Serena win on 2026-11-01?No $209 · now 61¢ · in at 63¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Real Racing Club $200 · now 35¢ · in at 37¢with the consensus (77% of 14)
Specialties
8,758 settled consensus markets · held side won 56% at an average entry of 57¢- NFL
+7 pts
side won 60% of 244 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +4%
- Tennis
+3 pts
side won 42% of 886 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +2%
- NBA
+3 pts
side won 55% of 119 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: College Football — held side won 45% of 546 at an average 50¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 27% of 862)
- 30–50¢: 35%(won 42% of 3045)
- 50–70¢: 26%(won 57% of 2245)
- 70¢ and up: 30%(won 81% of 2606)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.