W75 Brisbane: Joanna Garland vs Hikaru Sato
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Joanna Garland (67%) · Joanna Garland at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Joanna Garland
6
Joanna Garland 67%
$2.9K
$7.02
85.1¢ → 99¢
+16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralJoanna Garland at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Joanna Garland. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GL glennyorkshire | Joanna Garlandavg 84¢ | $2.0K | $2.2K | +$238.09 | 46% 36-43 (79) |
 RN1 | Joanna Garlandavg 90¢ | $455 | $474.28 | +$19.28 | 58% 3865-2855 (6720) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Hikaru Satoavg 12.2¢ | $119.93 | $77.25 | -$42.67 | 50% 1618-1607 (3225) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Joanna Garlandavg 90¢ | $58.05 | $52.93 | -$5.12 | 48% 1027-1110 (2137) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Joanna Garlandavg 85¢ | $23.12 | $24.51 | +$1.39 | 48% 84-91 (175) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Hikaru Satoavg 13.5¢ | $222.87 | $18.92 | -$203.95 | 54% 1691-1468 (3159) |
Invested
$1,999.95
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$238.09
Record
46%
36-43 (79)
RN1Invested
$455
Value
$474.28
PnL
+$19.28
Record
58%
3865-2855 (6720)
Invested
$119.93
Value
$77.25
PnL
-$42.67
Record
50%
1618-1607 (3225)
Invested
$58.05
Value
$52.93
PnL
-$5.12
Record
48%
1027-1110 (2137)
Invested
$23.12
Value
$24.51
PnL
+$1.39
Record
48%
84-91 (175)
Invested
$222.87
Value
$18.92
PnL
-$203.95
Record
54%
1691-1468 (3159)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.