W35 Heraklion: Denislava Glushkova vs Lucie Nguyen Tan
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Lucie Nguyen Tan (40%) · Lucie Nguyen Tan at 86¢ · $662 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Lucie Nguyen Tan
5
Lucie Nguyen Tan 40%
$661.55
$16.75
76.2¢ → 85.5¢
+12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralLucie Nguyen Tan at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Lucie Nguyen Tanavg 75.3¢ | $318.28 | $360.99 | +$42.71 | 51% 1816-1775 (3591) |
 RN1CTR | Denislava Glushkovaavg 24.5¢ | $110.79 | $117.14 | +$6.35 | 57% 4020-3036 (7056) |
38 38791873984189 | Lucie Nguyen Tanavg 79.3¢ | $111.79 | $105.18 | -$6.61 | 48% 1257-1350 (2607) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Denislava Glushkovaavg 20¢ | $87.2 | $63.22 | -$23.98 | 53% 1783-1584 (3367) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Denislava Glushkovaavg 29¢ | $16.75 | $15.02 | -$1.73 | 53% 5637-5072 (10709) |
Invested
$318.28
Value
$360.99
PnL
+$42.71
Record
51%
1816-1775 (3591)
RN1CTRInvested
$110.79
Value
$117.14
PnL
+$6.35
Record
57%
4020-3036 (7056)
Invested
$111.79
Value
$105.18
PnL
-$6.61
Record
48%
1257-1350 (2607)
Invested
$87.2
Value
$63.22
PnL
-$23.98
Record
53%
1783-1584 (3367)
Invested
$16.75
Value
$15.02
PnL
-$1.73
Record
53%
5637-5072 (10709)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.