M25 San Gregorio di Catania: Matteo Gribaldo vs Federico Iannaccone
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Federico Iannaccone (17%) · Federico Iannaccone at 68¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 18
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Neutral
Federico Iannaccone
6
Federico Iannaccone 17%
$2.6K
$75.52
Research grade
NeutralFederico Iannaccone at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GL glennyorkshire | Federico Iannacconeavg 66.2¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$52.84 | 49% 45-47 (92) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Matteo Gribaldoavg 33¢ | $206.56 | $228.46 | +$21.91 | 38% 136-221 (357) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Matteo Gribaldoavg 33¢ | $160.37 | $155.51 | -$4.86 | 31% 375-842 (1217) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Matteo Gribaldoavg 33.4¢ | $76.6 | $83.59 | +$6.98 | 48% 1299-1404 (2703) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Matteo Gribaldoavg 33¢ | $57.19 | $55.46 | -$1.73 | 30% 371-861 (1232) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Matteo Gribaldoavg 36¢ | $20.4 | $20.77 | +$0.38 | 51% 1822-1783 (3605) |
Invested
$1,977
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$52.84
Record
49%
45-47 (92)
Invested
$206.56
Value
$228.46
PnL
+$21.91
Record
38%
136-221 (357)
Invested
$160.37
Value
$155.51
PnL
-$4.86
Record
31%
375-842 (1217)
Invested
$76.6
Value
$83.59
PnL
+$6.98
Record
48%
1299-1404 (2703)
Invested
$57.19
Value
$55.46
PnL
-$1.73
Record
30%
371-861 (1232)
Invested
$20.4
Value
$20.77
PnL
+$0.38
Record
51%
1822-1783 (3605)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.