W75 Brisbane: Yuki Naito vs Mei Yamaguchi
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Mei Yamaguchi (50%) · Mei Yamaguchi at 91¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18
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Neutral
Mei Yamaguchi
6
Mei Yamaguchi 50%
$1.9K
$69.03
86.8¢ → 90.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralMei Yamaguchi at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Mei Yamaguchiavg 91¢ | $687.03 | $659.64 | -$27.39 | 50% 1504-1508 (3012) |
 RN1 | Mei Yamaguchiavg 78.8¢ | $571.04 | $639.71 | +$68.67 | 58% 3802-2784 (6586) |
38 38791873984189 | Mei Yamaguchiavg 92.3¢ | $471.89 | $451.84 | -$20.05 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Yuki Naitoavg 6.4¢ | $89.49 | $133.86 | +$44.36 | 54% 1657-1434 (3091) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100 | Yuki Naitoavg 5.7¢ | $2.55 | $1.43 | +$3.43 | 21% 94-363 (457) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Yuki Naitoavg 26¢ | $0.52 | $0.52 | +$0 | 49% 82-85 (167) |
Invested
$687.03
Value
$659.64
PnL
-$27.39
Record
50%
1504-1508 (3012)
RN1Invested
$571.04
Value
$639.71
PnL
+$68.67
Record
58%
3802-2784 (6586)
Invested
$471.89
Value
$451.84
PnL
-$20.05
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
Invested
$89.49
Value
$133.86
PnL
+$44.36
Record
54%
1657-1434 (3091)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$1.43
PnL
+$3.43
Record
21%
94-363 (457)
Invested
$0.52
Value
$0.52
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
82-85 (167)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.