Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Tina Nadine Smith, while the market favors Anna Petkovic (85%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
W35 Heraklion: Anna Petkovic vs Tina Nadine Smith
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Tina Nadine Smith (60%) · Tina Nadine Smith at 16¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 18
⚠️
Avoid
Tina Nadine Smith
5
Tina Nadine Smith 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$18.52
15.6¢ → 15.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidTina Nadine Smith at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Anna Petkovic 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Tina Nadine Smithavg 15.6¢ | $868.54 | $836.34 | -$32.2 | 53% 1788-1590 (3378) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Anna Petkovicavg 80¢ | $332.6 | $314.33 | -$18.27 | 51% 1818-1779 (3597) |
| └ Anna Petkovic leg | Anna Petkovicavg 80¢ | $206.4 | $218.01 | +$11.61 | |
| └ Tina Nadine Smith leg | Tina Nadine Smithavg 20.3¢ | $126.2 | $96.32 | -$29.88 | |
CI cigarettes | Anna Petkovicavg 85¢ | $187.51 | $191.92 | +$4.41 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Tina Nadine Smithavg 20¢ | $5.6 | $13.72 | +$8.12 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Anna Petkovicavg 48¢ | $9.5 | $10.09 | +$0.59 | 30% 369-862 (1231) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Tina Nadine Smithavg 38¢ | $1.9 | $2.45 | +$0.55 | 49% 93-96 (189) |
Invested
$868.54
Value
$836.34
PnL
-$32.2
Record
53%
1788-1590 (3378)
Invested
$332.6
Value
$314.33
PnL
-$18.27
Record
51%
1818-1779 (3597)
Both legs:
Invested
$187.51
Value
$191.92
PnL
+$4.41
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$13.72
PnL
+$8.12
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
Invested
$9.5
Value
$10.09
PnL
+$0.59
Record
30%
369-862 (1231)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$2.45
PnL
+$0.55
Record
49%
93-96 (189)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.