M15 Heraklion: Matias Reyniak vs Matthew Thomson
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Matias Reyniak (60%) · Matias Reyniak at 82¢ · $232 held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Matias Reyniak
5
Matias Reyniak 60%
$231.82
-$12.06
61.2¢ → 81.5¢
+33% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralMatias Reyniak at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Matias Reyniak. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Matias Reyniakavg 60.6¢ | $88.8 | $118.73 | +$29.92 | 34% 164-316 (480) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Matias Reyniakavg 63¢ | $31.44 | $40.42 | +$8.98 | 50% 1384-1403 (2787) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Matthew Thomsonavg 41.5¢ | $63.08 | $35.72 | -$27.36 | 48% 752-814 (1566) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Matthew Thomsonavg 41¢ | $57.41 | $32.91 | -$24.51 | 54% 1606-1351 (2957) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Matias Reyniakavg 63¢ | $3.15 | $4.05 | +$0.9 | 29% 157-376 (533) |
Invested
$88.8
Value
$118.73
PnL
+$29.92
Record
34%
164-316 (480)
Invested
$31.44
Value
$40.42
PnL
+$8.98
Record
50%
1384-1403 (2787)
Invested
$63.08
Value
$35.72
PnL
-$27.36
Record
48%
752-814 (1566)
Invested
$57.41
Value
$32.91
PnL
-$24.51
Record
54%
1606-1351 (2957)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$4.05
PnL
+$0.9
Record
29%
157-376 (533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.