W50 Chihuahua: Anastasia Tikhonova vs Miriana Tona
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Anastasia Tikhonova (60%) · Anastasia Tikhonova at 67¢ · $827 held · ends Nov 17
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Neutral
Anastasia Tikhonova
5
Anastasia Tikhonova 60%
$826.63
-$113.08
70.8¢ → 67¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAnastasia Tikhonova at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Anastasia Tikhonovaavg 71.2¢ | $599.95 | $560.6 | -$39.36 | 54% 1637-1401 (3038) |
 RN1CTR | Miriana Tonaavg 31.3¢ | $304.6 | $231.79 | -$72.81 | 58% 3766-2722 (6488) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Anastasia Tikhonovaavg 48¢ | $13.5 | $15 | +$5.2 | 19% 83-349 (432) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Miriana Tonaavg 46.7¢ | $16.34 | $10.33 | -$6.02 | 48% 917-990 (1907) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Anastasia Tikhonovaavg 74¢ | $9.02 | $8.92 | -$0.1 | 50% 71-71 (142) |
Invested
$599.95
Value
$560.6
PnL
-$39.36
Record
54%
1637-1401 (3038)
RN1CTRInvested
$304.6
Value
$231.79
PnL
-$72.81
Record
58%
3766-2722 (6488)
Invested
$13.5
Value
$15
PnL
+$5.2
Record
19%
83-349 (432)
Invested
$16.34
Value
$10.33
PnL
-$6.02
Record
48%
917-990 (1907)
Invested
$9.02
Value
$8.92
PnL
-$0.1
Record
50%
71-71 (142)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.