Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Sahaja Yamalapalli, while the market favors Olivia Gadecki (60%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
W75 Brisbane: Sahaja Yamalapalli vs Olivia Gadecki
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Sahaja Yamalapalli (100%) · Sahaja Yamalapalli at 40¢ · $766 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Sahaja Yamalapalli
5
Sahaja Yamalapalli 100%
$766.29
$10.41
39.5¢ → 40¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSahaja Yamalapalli at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Olivia Gadecki 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Sahaja Yamalapalli. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadoxCTR | Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 39¢ | $295.52 | $303.1 | +$7.58 | 26% 234-663 (897) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 40.7¢ | $214.9 | $212.05 | -$2.86 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 39¢ | $193.83 | $201.29 | +$7.46 | 53% 5469-4897 (10366) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 40.7¢ | $36.92 | $35.39 | -$1.53 | 32% 184-398 (582) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 39.6¢ | $14.71 | $14.47 | -$0.24 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
Invested
$295.52
Value
$303.1
PnL
+$7.58
Record
26%
234-663 (897)
Invested
$214.9
Value
$212.05
PnL
-$2.86
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
Invested
$193.83
Value
$201.29
PnL
+$7.46
Record
53%
5469-4897 (10366)
Invested
$36.92
Value
$35.39
PnL
-$1.53
Record
32%
184-398 (582)
Invested
$14.71
Value
$14.47
PnL
-$0.24
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.