Will Ascoli Calcio 1898 FC win on 2026-11-06?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 67¢ · $168 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$167.8
$1.18
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 70.2¢ | $79.12 | $78.33 | -$0.8 | 51% 26315-24941 (51256) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 70.2¢ | $53.66 | $51.22 | -$2.44 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 31¢ | $25.46 | $27.1 | +$1.64 | |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $49.46 | $49.46 | +$0.36 | 48% 61871-66733 (128604) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $15.02 | $15.96 | +$0.94 | 49% 1537-1615 (3152) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 68.8¢ | $22.93 | $9.2 | +$0.27 | 58% 47033-33917 (80950) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 69.5¢ | $8.76 | $8.65 | -$0.28 | 50% 26084-25740 (51824) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.1¢ | $6.41 | $6.2 | -$0.1 | 53% 2617-2309 (4926) |
Invested
$79.12
Value
$78.33
PnL
-$0.8
Record
51%
26315-24941 (51256)
Both legs:
Invested
$49.46
Value
$49.46
PnL
+$0.36
Record
48%
61871-66733 (128604)
Invested
$15.02
Value
$15.96
PnL
+$0.94
Record
49%
1537-1615 (3152)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$22.93
Value
$9.2
PnL
+$0.27
Record
58%
47033-33917 (80950)
Invested
$8.76
Value
$8.65
PnL
-$0.28
Record
50%
26084-25740 (51824)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$6.41
Value
$6.2
PnL
-$0.1
Record
53%
2617-2309 (4926)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.