Will Josh Downs have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 84¢ · $549 held · ends Jan 27, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$548.96
$108.57
68.9¢ → 84¢
+22% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1 | Noavg 67¢ | $334.99 | $419.99 | +$80 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 23¢ | $153.84 | $68.51 | +$34.36 | 34% 19139-36791 (55930) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $53.97 | $53.97 | +$0 | 39% 306-488 (794) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.9¢ | $21.58 | $6.48 | -$5.79 | 58% 21143-15371 (36514) |
Invested
$334.99
Value
$419.99
PnL
+$80
Record
64%
1050-593 (1643)
Invested
$153.84
Value
$68.51
PnL
+$34.36
Record
34%
19139-36791 (55930)
Invested
$53.97
Value
$53.97
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
306-488 (794)
Invested
$21.58
Value
$6.48
PnL
-$5.79
Record
58%
21143-15371 (36514)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.