Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
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Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$5.2K
$1.9K
53.4¢ → 95.1¢
+78% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MaxEnt | Noavg 56¢ | $235.77 | $3.2K | +$952.86 | 32% 129-276 (405) |
 XieGuangKun | Noavg 56.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.6K | +$626.88 | 51% 367-349 (716) |
 2B9S | Noavg 3.8¢ | $9.76 | $263.03 | +$253.27 | 18% 4058-19023 (23081) |
MU muddyrc<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $30.36 | $68.71 | +$38.35 | 51% 230-218 (448) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.