Consensus PnL $25K · win rate 51% (159–152, n=311) · hand-picked wallet · holds 15 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$24.7K
Record
159W / 152L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 311 settled
Batting Avg
51.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1706
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
7,113
Markets
510
Volume
$392.3K
Top consensus positions
15 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 15 on the consensus side (60%)- Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes $1.8K · now 56¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (No)
- Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes $1.6K · now 94¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes $1.5K · now 73¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?Yes $1.2K · now 37¢ · in at 40¢against the consensus (No)
- Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes $1.1K · now 88¢ · in at 68¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No $691 · now 94¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $598 · now 65¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (67% of 131)
- Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?No $572 · now 89¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
Specialties
401 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 51¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where muddyrc's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 59% of 192 at an average 60¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 29%(won 16% of 115)
- 30–50¢: 27%(won 35% of 108)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 61% of 61)
- 70¢ and up: 29%(won 93% of 117)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.