Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-11-01?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 75¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$2.7K
-$29.78
74.9¢ → 74.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276 | Noavg 75¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | -$15 | 67% 2646-1285 (3931) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Yesavg 25.6¢ | $415.71 | $398.93 | -$16.77 | 72% 6830-2625 (9455) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $28.09 | $29.27 | +$1.78 | 53% 16119-14285 (30404) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $10.36 | $10.36 | +$0.21 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
Invested
$2,250
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$15
Record
67%
2646-1285 (3931)
Invested
$415.71
Value
$398.93
PnL
-$16.77
Record
72%
6830-2625 (9455)
Invested
$28.09
Value
$29.27
PnL
+$1.78
Record
53%
16119-14285 (30404)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$10.36
Value
$10.36
PnL
+$0.21
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.