Consensus PnL -$165K · win rate 64% (1804–1014, n=2818) · was PM monthly #905 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-165.0K
Record
1804W / 1014L
Win Rate
64.0%
of 2818 settled
Batting Avg
28.6%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#962
Source
PM monthly #905
Trades
465
Markets
3,990
Volume
$4.3M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 7 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes $9.4K · now 56¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (58% of 19)
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes $2.7K · now 45¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (67% of 13)
- Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-11-01?No $2.6K · now 87¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (68% of 28)
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-11-01?No $2.3K · now 94¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (71% of 19)
- Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-11-01?No $2.3K · now 75¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Torino FC win on 2026-11-01?No $2.2K · now 73¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (58% of 16)
- Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-11-01?No $1.8K · now 93¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (33% of 10)
Specialties
2,142 settled consensus markets · held side won 92% at an average entry of 77¢- Soccer
+16 pts
side won 91% of 1960 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +12%
- Esports
+32 pts
side won 100% of 11 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +23%
- Entertainment
+6 pts
side won 98% of 127 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +6%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 49% of 207)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 82% of 148)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 90% of 202)
- 70¢ and up: 74%(won 99% of 1585)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.