Consensus PnL $459K · win rate 73% (4197–1581, n=5778) · was PM monthly #967 · holds 153 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$458.7K
Record
4197W / 1581L
Win Rate
73.0%
of 5778 settled
Batting Avg
52.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#617
Source
PM monthly #967
Trades
11,613
Markets
9,772
Volume
$89.8M
Top consensus positions
153 in listed consensus markets · 102 of 153 on the consensus side (67%)- Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes $21K · now 75¢ · in at 71¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $18K · now 70¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes $17K · now 68¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (43% of 42)
- Eagles vs. CommandersCommanders $15K · now 71¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $14K · now 20¢ · in at 15¢with the consensus (94% of 34)
- Falcons vs. BuccaneersFalcons $13K · now 45¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (57% of 14)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $12K · now 15¢with the consensus (88% of 32)
- Chiefs vs. BroncosBroncos $11K · now 49¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Chiefs)
Specialties
5,268 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 56¢- Tennis
+64 pts
side won 100% of 231 · avg entry 36¢
ROI +65%
- MLB
+48 pts
side won 100% of 1990 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +29%
- Other Sports
+45 pts
side won 100% of 234 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +23%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 75% of 283)
- 30–50¢: 37%(won 100% of 1964)
- 50–70¢: 34%(won 100% of 1801)
- 70¢ and up: 23%(won 100% of 1220)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.