Elche CF vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 66¢ · $958 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 20%
$957.96
$0.01
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 66.1¢ | $590.51 | $584.81 | +$4.47 | 50% 21375-21650 (43025) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 35¢ | $304.74 | $300.38 | -$4.35 | 51% 26331-24957 (51288) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $40.56 | $39.99 | -$0.58 | 50% 26109-25769 (51878) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $22.1 | $22.42 | +$0.33 | 58% 47075-33957 (81032) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $10.2 | $10.35 | +$0.15 | 48% 61939-66798 (128737) |
Invested
$590.51
Value
$584.81
PnL
+$4.47
Record
50%
21375-21650 (43025)
Invested
$304.74
Value
$300.38
PnL
-$4.35
Record
51%
26331-24957 (51288)
Invested
$40.56
Value
$39.99
PnL
-$0.58
Record
50%
26109-25769 (51878)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$22.1
Value
$22.42
PnL
+$0.33
Record
58%
47075-33957 (81032)
Invested
$10.2
Value
$10.35
PnL
+$0.15
Record
48%
61939-66798 (128737)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.