Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 0 - 3 Athletic Club?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 76¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$1.6K
$1.2K
97.2¢ → 75.8¢
-22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
68h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $104 | $1.0K | +$900.64 | 51% 25264-24010 (49274) |
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $1.89 | $241.5 | +$239.61 | 29% 1107-2691 (3798) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 97.3¢ | $247.9 | $193.3 | -$54.6 | 58% 20160-14785 (34945) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $18.34 | $153.5 | +$135.16 | 58% 51289-37277 (88566) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $53.11 | $40.96 | -$12.15 | 48% 60430-65044 (125474) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $9.14 | $7.16 | -$1.99 | 50% 37310-36579 (73889) |
Invested
$104
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$900.64
Record
51%
25264-24010 (49274)
Invested
$1.89
Value
$241.5
PnL
+$239.61
Record
29%
1107-2691 (3798)
Invested
$247.9
Value
$193.3
PnL
-$54.6
Record
58%
20160-14785 (34945)
Invested
$18.34
Value
$153.5
PnL
+$135.16
Record
58%
51289-37277 (88566)
Invested
$53.11
Value
$40.96
PnL
-$12.15
Record
48%
60430-65044 (125474)
Invested
$9.14
Value
$7.16
PnL
-$1.99
Record
50%
37310-36579 (73889)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.