Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1 - 3 Athletic Club?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 51¢ · $832 held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$832.2
$750.73
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $55.38 | $752.52 | +$697.14 | 58% 50275-36314 (86589) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $3.68 | $65.65 | +$62.14 | 48% 59434-63450 (122884) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $22.45 | $11.51 | -$10.95 | 58% 19680-14468 (34148) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.12 | $2.53 | +$2.41 | 50% 36455-35915 (72370) |
Invested
$55.38
Value
$752.52
PnL
+$697.14
Record
58%
50275-36314 (86589)
Invested
$3.68
Value
$65.65
PnL
+$62.14
Record
48%
59434-63450 (122884)
Invested
$22.45
Value
$11.51
PnL
-$10.95
Record
58%
19680-14468 (34148)
Invested
$0.12
Value
$2.53
PnL
+$2.41
Record
50%
36455-35915 (72370)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.