Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 2 - 2 Athletic Club?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 55¢ · $860 held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$859.6
$262.01
93.8¢ → 54.8¢
-42% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $13.89 | $452.5 | +$438.61 | 28% 1133-2905 (4038) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 93.7¢ | $492 | $287.44 | -$204.56 | 58% 46675-33635 (80310) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $13.58 | $71.3 | +$62.72 | 48% 61037-65871 (126908) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $78.33 | $45.63 | -$32.71 | 56% 8329-6493 (14822) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $4.8 | $2.74 | -$2.05 | 58% 51699-37586 (89285) |
Invested
$13.89
Value
$452.5
PnL
+$438.61
Record
28%
1133-2905 (4038)
VeryLucky888Invested
$492
Value
$287.44
PnL
-$204.56
Record
58%
46675-33635 (80310)
Invested
$13.58
Value
$71.3
PnL
+$62.72
Record
48%
61037-65871 (126908)
Invested
$78.33
Value
$45.63
PnL
-$32.71
Record
56%
8329-6493 (14822)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$2.74
PnL
-$2.05
Record
58%
51699-37586 (89285)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.