Athletic Club leading at halftime?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 59¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$5.5K
$209.18
70.3¢ → 58.5¢
-17% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
292h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
13 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR | Yesavg 30.1¢ | $2.0K | $2.8K | +$753.27 | 26% 108-303 (411) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 69.9¢ | $1.9K | $1.6K | -$315.31 | 58% 43595-31708 (75303) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 71.8¢ | $851.2 | $693.81 | -$157.39 | 51% 17610-16613 (34223) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382 | Noavg 69.3¢ | $464.89 | $392.53 | -$72.35 | 46% 9226-10935 (20161) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $41.4 | $35.1 | -$6.3 | 58% 29905-21965 (51870) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $24.47 | $31.74 | +$7.26 | 46% 7928-9254 (17182) |
Invested
$2,000
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$753.27
Record
26%
108-303 (411)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,948.72
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$315.31
Record
58%
43595-31708 (75303)
Invested
$851.2
Value
$693.81
PnL
-$157.39
Record
51%
17610-16613 (34223)
Invested
$464.89
Value
$392.53
PnL
-$72.35
Record
46%
9226-10935 (20161)
Invested
$41.4
Value
$35.1
PnL
-$6.3
Record
58%
29905-21965 (51870)
Invested
$24.47
Value
$31.74
PnL
+$7.26
Record
46%
7928-9254 (17182)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.