Consensus PnL -$742 · win rate 45% (7945–9676, n=17621) · was PM monthly #790 · holds 28 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
-$742.12
Record
7945W / 9676L
Win Rate
45.0%
of 17621 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2176
Source
PM monthly #790
Record (90 d)
10469/19765 · 53%
Trades
24,869
Markets
20,262
Volume
$35.0M
Top consensus positions
28 in listed consensus markets · 12 of 28 on the consensus side (43%)- Rolex Paris Masters: Luciano Darderi vs Rinky HijikataLuciano Darderi $659 · now 19¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (Rinky Hijikata)
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?Yes $616 · now 30¢ · in at 32¢against the consensus (No)
- Athletic Club leading at halftime?No $393 · now 59¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Everton FC win on 2026-11-02?No $302 · now 72¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (50% of 14)
- Chennai Open: Aliona Falei vs Magda LinetteAliona Falei $245 · now 35¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Magda Linette)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5Over $236 · now 28¢ · in at 11¢against the consensus (Under)
- Will FK Dynamo Kyiv win on 2026-11-02?No $223 · now 33¢ · in at 30¢with the consensus (73% of 11)
- Will FK Zorya Luhansk win on 2026-11-02?No $216 · now 50¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
13,139 settled consensus markets · held side won 46% at an average entry of 45¢- Tennis
+2 pts
side won 36% of 2823 · avg entry 33¢
ROI +2%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 30%(won 16% of 3994)
- 30–50¢: 34%(won 42% of 4476)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 60% of 1929)
- 70¢ and up: 21%(won 87% of 2740)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.