Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Draw at halftime?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 52¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$1.8K
$278.46
40.1¢ → 52¢
+30% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000 | Yesavg 36.6¢ | $679.16 | $966.04 | +$286.89 | 42% 2300-3130 (5430) |
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 46.8¢ | $454.89 | $505.19 | +$50.29 | 51% 17613-16616 (34229) |
MI MinevaJCTR | Noavg 49¢ | $181.3 | $177.6 | -$3.7 | 57% 1076-812 (1888) |
SL SlickRick123CTR | Noavg 67¢ | $130.4 | $91.87 | -$35.76 | 46% 4535-5348 (9883) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $21.48 | $76.17 | -$19.26 | 47% 10054-11163 (21217) |
Invested
$679.16
Value
$966.04
PnL
+$286.89
Record
42%
2300-3130 (5430)
Invested
$454.89
Value
$505.19
PnL
+$50.29
Record
51%
17613-16616 (34229)
Invested
$181.3
Value
$177.6
PnL
-$3.7
Record
57%
1076-812 (1888)
Invested
$130.4
Value
$91.87
PnL
-$35.76
Record
46%
4535-5348 (9883)
Invested
$21.48
Value
$76.17
PnL
-$19.26
Record
47%
10054-11163 (21217)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.