Consensus PnL $18K · win rate 46% (3124–3626, n=6750) · PM monthly #985 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$18.0K
Record
3124W / 3626L
Win Rate
46.0%
of 6750 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2132
Source
PM monthly #985
Record (90 d)
2045/4074 · 50%
Trades
582
Markets
9,497
Volume
$2.1M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 3 on the consensus side (33%)- Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group AFaZe $2.3K · now 14¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (57% of 90)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Draw at halftime?No $92 · now 48¢ · in at 67¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to ScoreYes $71 · now 28¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
2,573 settled consensus markets · held side won 48% at an average entry of 45¢- Other Sports
+16 pts
side won 62% of 85 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +24%
- NBA
+13 pts
side won 59% of 119 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +12%
- Tennis
+5 pts
side won 52% of 352 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +10%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 37% of 563 at an average 41¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 27%(won 14% of 704)
- 30–50¢: 29%(won 38% of 744)
- 50–70¢: 28%(won 69% of 716)
- 70¢ and up: 16%(won 88% of 409)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.