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9E
Consensus PnL -$20K · win rate 61% (521–331, n=852) · PM monthly #827 · holds 10 consensus positions
0x9e3ae3f3...2edbe974Polymarket
⚖️Arb🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$-20.2K
Record
521W / 331L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 852 settled
Batting Avg
83.3%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1115
Source
PM monthly #827
Trades
242
Markets
1,950
Volume
$7.1M
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 10 on the consensus side (50%)- Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Yes $5.1K · now 18¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (No)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 0.5Over $3.3K · now 83¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?No $2.3K · now 54¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (76% of 32)
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?Yes $2.0K · now 31¢ · in at 32¢against the consensus (No)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Over $1.1K · now 40¢ · in at 40¢against the consensus (Under)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over $1.1K · now 53¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5Over $768 · now 42¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (Under)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5Over $758 · now 70¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (83% of 13)
Specialties
701 settled consensus markets · held side won 95% at an average entry of 72¢- Soccer
+23 pts
side won 95% of 701 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +9%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 76% of 63)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 85% of 75)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 96% of 129)
- 70¢ and up: 62%(won 100% of 434)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.