Consensus PnL $58K · win rate 41% (2232–3147, n=5379) · PM monthly #598 · holds 20 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$57.8K
Record
2232W / 3147L
Win Rate
41.0%
of 5379 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2075
Source
PM monthly #598
Trades
723
Markets
5,692
Volume
$709.8K
Top consensus positions
20 in listed consensus markets · 14 of 20 on the consensus side (70%)- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over $1.2K · now 53¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?Yes $803 · now 98¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?Yes $539 · now 79¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?No $289 · now 96¢ · in at 94¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?No $267 · now 89¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (60% of 15)
- Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?No $193 · now 91¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (45% of 11)
- Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?No $129 · now 18¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $85 · now 24¢ · in at 21¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
Specialties
1,324 settled consensus markets · held side won 90% at an average entry of 57¢- College Football
+47 pts
side won 100% of 29 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +50%
- Esports
+40 pts
side won 98% of 80 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +34%
- NFL
+40 pts
side won 97% of 77 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +43%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 19%(won 65% of 246)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 88% of 259)
- 50–70¢: 23%(won 94% of 301)
- 70¢ and up: 39%(won 99% of 518)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.