Consensus PnL $569K · win rate 56% (1232–959, n=2191) · was PM monthly #454 · holds 17 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$568.9K
Record
1232W / 959L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 2191 settled
Batting Avg
16.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1381
Source
PM monthly #454
Trades
658
Markets
2,377
Volume
$27.8M
Top consensus positions
17 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 17 on the consensus side (35%)- Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?No $20K · now 54¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $9.4K · now 65¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (67% of 131)
- Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?Yes $5.3K · now 15¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (79% of 14)
- LoL: Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - Worlds PlayoffsBilibili Gaming $5.1K · now 59¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026No $2.4K · now 19¢ · in at 61¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.8K · now 33¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.6K · now 28¢ · in at 27¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No $1.2K · now 48¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (40% of 60)
Specialties
1,191 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 60¢- Esports
+46 pts
side won 100% of 680 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +43%
- NFL
+36 pts
side won 100% of 229 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +30%
- College Football
+28 pts
side won 99% of 119 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +25%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 98% of 55)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 99% of 275)
- 50–70¢: 46%(won 100% of 551)
- 70¢ and up: 26%(won 100% of 310)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.