Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-11-07?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 48¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$1.8K
-$50.65
48.8¢ → 47.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 rayvanmechelenCTR | Yesavg 49.2¢ | $985.74 | $960.76 | -$24.98 | 53% 2699-2381 (5080) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 53.7¢ | $312.74 | $302.6 | -$10.14 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 57¢ | $273.78 | $244.5 | -$19.41 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
 nigiri99CTR | Yesavg 46.7¢ | $220.93 | $227.04 | +$4.88 | 46% 8770-10463 (19233) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 55.1¢ | $26.44 | $24.97 | -$1 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
rayvanmechelenCTRInvested
$985.74
Value
$960.76
PnL
-$24.98
Record
53%
2699-2381 (5080)
Invested
$312.74
Value
$302.6
PnL
-$10.14
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
VeryLucky888Invested
$273.78
Value
$244.5
PnL
-$19.41
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$220.93
Value
$227.04
PnL
+$4.88
Record
46%
8770-10463 (19233)
Invested
$26.44
Value
$24.97
PnL
-$1
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.