Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Nets vs. Pelicans: O/U 226.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 50¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 40%
$1.1K
$1.19
57.6¢ → 49.5¢
-14% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Overavg 58.8¢ | $563.89 | $542.68 | -$21.2 | 57% 4059-3077 (7136) |
AN Anon455CTR | Overavg 56¢ | $274.96 | $263.71 | -$11.25 | 45% 183-223 (406) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 41.5¢ | $155.06 | $176.65 | +$21.59 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 41¢ | $90.97 | $103.18 | +$12.2 | 53% 1851-1666 (3517) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $14.1 | $13.95 | -$0.15 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
RN1CTRInvested
$563.89
Value
$542.68
PnL
-$21.2
Record
57%
4059-3077 (7136)
Invested
$274.96
Value
$263.71
PnL
-$11.25
Record
45%
183-223 (406)
Invested
$155.06
Value
$176.65
PnL
+$21.59
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
Invested
$90.97
Value
$103.18
PnL
+$12.2
Record
53%
1851-1666 (3517)
Invested
$14.1
Value
$13.95
PnL
-$0.15
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.