Consensus PnL -$99K · win rate 62% (1343–823, n=2166) · was PM monthly #679 · holds 30 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-99.1K
Record
1343W / 823L
Win Rate
62.0%
of 2166 settled
Batting Avg
38.6%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1059
Source
PM monthly #679
Trades
7,206
Markets
5,532
Volume
$22.0M
Top consensus positions
30 in listed consensus markets · 18 of 30 on the consensus side (60%)- Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-11-01?No $21K · now 86¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (78% of 29)
- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-01?Yes $17K · now 83¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (65% of 35)
- Will SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw?No $8.8K · now 55¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (58% of 15)
- Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-01?No $3.0K · now 60¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (79% of 17)
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?No $2.8K · now 75¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (50% of 11)
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-11-01?No $2.2K · now 39¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-11-01?Yes $1.9K · now 0¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC end in a draw?No $1.6K · now 79¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (54% of 13)
Specialties
1,706 settled consensus markets · held side won 62% at an average entry of 57¢- Crypto
+11 pts
side won 77% of 666 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +16%
- NFL
+10 pts
side won 65% of 166 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +10%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 47% of 276 at an average 49¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 18%(won 11% of 302)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 39% of 313)
- 50–70¢: 28%(won 70% of 470)
- 70¢ and up: 36%(won 92% of 621)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.