Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 72¢ · $709 held · ends Nov 9
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 29%
$708.72
-$7.77
72.5¢ → 72¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 72%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 72.5¢ | $605.68 | $597.31 | -$8.36 | 52% 47368-44608 (91976) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Overavg 27¢ | $52.13 | $53.07 | +$0.95 | 53% 14337-12646 (26983) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $26.2 | $25.74 | -$0.46 | 48% 70301-75984 (146285) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 73¢ | $14.02 | $13.92 | -$0.1 | 50% 27970-27422 (55392) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $11.97 | $11.76 | -$0.21 | 52% 27288-24794 (52082) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 27¢ | $5.22 | $5.51 | +$0.29 | 47% 2189-2445 (4634) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 26¢ | $1.28 | $1.4 | +$0.13 | 47% 2148-2414 (4562) |
Invested
$605.68
Value
$597.31
PnL
-$8.36
Record
52%
47368-44608 (91976)
Invested
$52.13
Value
$53.07
PnL
+$0.95
Record
53%
14337-12646 (26983)
Invested
$26.2
Value
$25.74
PnL
-$0.46
Record
48%
70301-75984 (146285)
Invested
$14.02
Value
$13.92
PnL
-$0.1
Record
50%
27970-27422 (55392)
Invested
$11.97
Value
$11.76
PnL
-$0.21
Record
52%
27288-24794 (52082)
Invested
$5.22
Value
$5.51
PnL
+$0.29
Record
47%
2189-2445 (4634)
Invested
$1.28
Value
$1.4
PnL
+$0.13
Record
47%
2148-2414 (4562)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.