Consensus PnL $647K · win rate 58% (5903–4359, n=10262) · PM monthly #840 · holds 22 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$646.7K
Record
5903W / 4359L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 10262 settled
Batting Avg
41.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1268
Source
PM monthly #840
Trades
21,826
Markets
22,083
Volume
$20.6M
Top consensus positions
22 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 22 on the consensus side (36%)- Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Patriots $687 · now 46¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (Dolphins)
- Raiders vs. JetsRaiders $287 · now 47¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Jets)
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Bills $209 · now 47¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Ravens)
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 42.5Over $186 · now 53¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Spread: Bears (-5.5)Seahawks $162 · now 76¢ · in at 74¢against the consensus (Bears)
- Titans vs. BengalsBengals $159 · now 88¢ · in at 81¢against the consensus (Titans)
- Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5Over $158 · now 47¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- Raptors vs. LakersLakers $115 · now 57¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (56% of 18)
Specialties
4,708 settled consensus markets · held side won 86% at an average entry of 59¢- Other Sports
+49 pts
side won 100% of 64 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +43%
- MLB
+37 pts
side won 97% of 2054 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +29%
- Soccer
+35 pts
side won 99% of 109 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +35%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 39% of 318)
- 30–50¢: 34%(won 78% of 1589)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 93% of 1292)
- 70¢ and up: 32%(won 99% of 1509)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.