Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 218.5

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 43¢ · $311 held · ends Nov 1

Over57¢Under43¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

Total Value

$310.78

Combined PnL

$27.63

Smart Money Entry

39.1¢ → 43¢

+10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$310.78

Total Shares641

Combined PnL+$27.63

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Underavg 39¢	$262.26	$286.17	+$26.75	62% 4201-2575 (6776)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$15.21	$16.77	+$1.56	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 43.3¢	$6.54	$5.89	-$0.65	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$2	$1.95	-$0.03	50% 7122-7165 (14287)

SunlineTickerCTR

Under

Invested

$262.26

Value

$286.17

PnL

+$26.75

Record

62%

4201-2575 (6776)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.21

Value

$16.77

PnL

+$1.56

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.54

Value

$5.89

PnL

-$0.65

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

7122-7165 (14287)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.