Consensus PnL -$349K · win rate 49% (6651–6884, n=13535) · was PM monthly #893 · holds 32 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-348.7K
Record
6651W / 6884L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 13535 settled
Batting Avg
35.1%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1829
Source
PM monthly #893
Trades
5,920
Markets
15,462
Volume
$10.6M
Top consensus positions
32 in listed consensus markets · 20 of 32 on the consensus side (63%)- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-01?Yes $4.2K · now 82¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (44% of 16)
- Spread: Jets (-1.5)Jets $3.4K · now 51¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Raiders)
- Raiders vs. Jets: O/U 46.5Over $2.2K · now 51¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (29% of 7)
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 221.5Under $1.8K · now 51¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (56% of 11)
- SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5Over $1.7K · now 100¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (33% of 19)
- Falcons vs. BuccaneersFalcons $1.1K · now 45¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (57% of 14)
- Will Getafe CF win on 2026-11-01?No $1.1K · now 29¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (71% of 25)
- Spread: Lions (-3.5)Lions $997 · now 48¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
Specialties
4,860 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 58¢- College Football
+52 pts
side won 100% of 335 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +53%
- NFL
+53 pts
side won 100% of 161 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +53%
- NBA
+47 pts
side won 97% of 315 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +41%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 82% of 390)
- 30–50¢: 27%(won 96% of 1321)
- 50–70¢: 38%(won 97% of 1827)
- 70¢ and up: 27%(won 98% of 1322)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.