Consensus PnL $330K · win rate 63% (3081–1771, n=4852) · was PM monthly #993 · holds 13 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$329.6K
Record
3081W / 1771L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 4852 settled
Batting Avg
60.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1002
Source
PM monthly #993
Trades
5,702
Markets
7,697
Volume
$15.0M
Top consensus positions
13 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 13 on the consensus side (46%)- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $8.8K · now 72¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (67% of 67)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $4.1K · now 63¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Clippers vs. WarriorsWarriors $2.6K · now 54¢ · in at 54¢against the consensus (Clippers)
- No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?No $1.8K · now 94¢ · in at 27¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.0K · now 53¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?Yes $404 · now 16¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Yes $334 · now 24¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (55% of 11)
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 220.5Over $332 · now 52¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (83% of 7)
Specialties
3,650 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 54¢- Tennis
+54 pts
side won 93% of 235 · avg entry 38¢
ROI +52%
- NBA
+45 pts
side won 99% of 2127 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +35%
- Other Sports
+44 pts
side won 99% of 275 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +43%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 70% of 190)
- 30–50¢: 39%(won 97% of 1424)
- 50–70¢: 39%(won 98% of 1427)
- 70¢ and up: 17%(won 97% of 609)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.