Spread: Celtics (-17.5)

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (75%) · Celtics at 65¢ · $140 held · ended Nov 11

Celtics65¢76ers35¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$139.73

Combined PnL

-$13.87

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics65%

76ers36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers1 trader

Total Value$44.55

Total Shares38

Combined PnL-$4.4

Celtics3 traders

Total Value$15.13

Total Shares216

Combined PnL-$9.47

76ers — 25%Celtics — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	76ersavg 36¢	$76.32	$80.04	+$3.73	54% 217-188 (405)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 36¢	$50.63	$52.73	+$2.11
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 58.8¢	$25.69	$27.31	+$1.62
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	76ersavg 77¢	$48.95	$44.55	-$4.4	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Celticsavg 8¢	$8.28	$7.25	-$1.04	56% 502-393 (895)
RN1<$100	Celticsavg 9.3¢	$6.46	$4.88	-$1.57	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
TA takeormake<$100	Celticsavg 23¢	$9.86	$3	-$6.86	59% 3119-2207 (5326)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$76.32

Value

$80.04

PnL

+$3.73

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

Both legs:

76ers$50.6336¢+$2.11

Celtics$25.6958.8¢+$1.62

FlaznorpCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$48.95

Value

$44.55

PnL

-$4.4

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Celtics

Invested

$8.28

Value

$7.25

PnL

-$1.04

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

RN1<$100

Celtics

Invested

$6.46

Value

$4.88

PnL

-$1.57

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

takeormake<$100

Celtics

Invested

$9.86

Value

PnL

-$6.86

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.