Consensus PnL $986K · win rate 55% (2308–1925, n=4233) · PM monthly #25 · holds 16 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$986.4K
Record
2308W / 1925L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 4233 settled
Batting Avg
58.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1435
Source
PM monthly #25
Trades
10,305
Markets
8,668
Volume
$41.8M
Top consensus positions
16 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 16 on the consensus side (25%)- Spread: Jets (-1.5)Raiders $24K · now 50¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (40% of 10)
- Raiders vs. JetsRaiders $18K · now 47¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Jets)
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Ravens $8.9K · now 54¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (53% of 17)
- Vikings vs. LionsVikings $6.9K · now 38¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (Lions)
- Ravens vs. BillsRavens $3.2K · now 39¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (Bills)
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No $2.3K · now 89¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (67% of 51)
- Nets vs. PacersNets $1.4K · now 39¢ · in at 40¢against the consensus (Pacers)
- Clippers vs. WarriorsWarriors $1.2K · now 54¢ · in at 59¢against the consensus (Clippers)
Specialties
2,056 settled consensus markets · held side won 87% at an average entry of 57¢- NFL
+45 pts
side won 99% of 274 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +53%
- College Football
+38 pts
side won 100% of 184 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +41%
- NBA
+34 pts
side won 88% of 821 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +21%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 33% of 220)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 83% of 412)
- 50–70¢: 45%(won 96% of 918)
- 70¢ and up: 25%(won 98% of 506)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.