Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 201.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 99¢ · $340 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 33%
$339.61
-$166.57
82.8¢ → 99.2¢
+20% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 82.6¢ | $230.99 | $276.94 | +$45.95 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Underavg 16¢ | $139.62 | $25.74 | -$113.88 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 16¢ | $69.55 | $20.9 | -$48.52 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 87¢ | $14.3 | $10.74 | -$3.56 | 49% 446-472 (918) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 17.4¢ | $48.61 | $2.66 | -$45.95 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 16¢ | $3.24 | $2.64 | -$0.61 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
Invested
$230.99
Value
$276.94
PnL
+$45.95
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Invested
$139.62
Value
$25.74
PnL
-$113.88
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
Invested
$69.55
Value
$20.9
PnL
-$48.52
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
Invested
$14.3
Value
$10.74
PnL
-$3.56
Record
49%
446-472 (918)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$48.61
Value
$2.66
PnL
-$45.95
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$3.24
Value
$2.64
PnL
-$0.61
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.