Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 203.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 86¢ · $737 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 17%
1 arb excluded
$737.35
-$21.39
Research grade
AvoidOver at 86%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 83.9¢ | $313.6 | $304.66 | -$8.95 | 56% 488-383 (871) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 78.5¢ | $485.17 | $214.16 | +$34.59 | 50% 1504-1508 (3012) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 78.5¢ | $141.42 | $146.85 | +$25.5 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 16¢ | $58.21 | $67.31 | +$9.1 | |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 21.5¢ | $118.14 | $112.54 | -$5.59 | 58% 3802-2784 (6586) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $76.49 | $76.69 | +$0.2 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Underavg 19.2¢ | $25.46 | $25.86 | +$0.4 | 51% 3172-3072 (6244) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $6.27 | $1.98 | -$4.29 | 49% 444-470 (914) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $4.63 | $1.46 | -$3.17 | 54% 383-322 (705) |
Invested
$313.6
Value
$304.66
PnL
-$8.95
Record
56%
488-383 (871)
Invested
$485.17
Value
$214.16
PnL
+$34.59
Record
50%
1504-1508 (3012)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$118.14
Value
$112.54
PnL
-$5.59
Record
58%
3802-2784 (6586)
Invested
$76.49
Value
$76.69
PnL
+$0.2
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
Invested
$25.46
Value
$25.86
PnL
+$0.4
Record
51%
3172-3072 (6244)
Invested
$6.27
Value
$1.98
PnL
-$4.29
Record
49%
444-470 (914)
Invested
$4.63
Value
$1.46
PnL
-$3.17
Record
54%
383-322 (705)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.