Spread: Celtics (-20.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (57%) · Raptors at 95¢ · $893 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Raptors
7
Raptors 57%
$892.64
$2.97
88.4¢ → 95¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidRaptors at 95%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Raptorsavg 87.2¢ | $365.78 | $376.6 | +$10.82 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
 RN1 | Raptorsavg 90¢ | $336.52 | $336.63 | +$0.11 | 57% 4056-3070 (7126) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Raptorsavg 88¢ | $146.45 | $149.78 | +$3.33 | 55% 718-583 (1301) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Celticsavg 14¢ | $30.64 | $20.79 | -$9.85 | 48% 1420-1557 (2977) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Raptorsavg 86¢ | $4.47 | $4.71 | +$0.23 | 39% 382-610 (992) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 14¢ | $5.32 | $3.61 | -$1.71 | 49% 684-724 (1408) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Celticsavg 9¢ | $0.49 | $0.52 | +$0.03 | 50% 3299-3255 (6554) |
Invested
$365.78
Value
$376.6
PnL
+$10.82
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
RN1Invested
$336.52
Value
$336.63
PnL
+$0.11
Record
57%
4056-3070 (7126)
Invested
$146.45
Value
$149.78
PnL
+$3.33
Record
55%
718-583 (1301)
Invested
$30.64
Value
$20.79
PnL
-$9.85
Record
48%
1420-1557 (2977)
Invested
$4.47
Value
$4.71
PnL
+$0.23
Record
39%
382-610 (992)
Invested
$5.32
Value
$3.61
PnL
-$1.71
Record
49%
684-724 (1408)
Invested
$0.49
Value
$0.52
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
3299-3255 (6554)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.