Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 201.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 93¢ · $160 held · ended Nov 12

Over93¢Under7¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

Total Value

$160.22

Combined PnL

-$4.55

Research grade

AvoidOver at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over93%

Under8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$126.88

Total Shares145

Combined PnL+$13.78

Under4 traders

Total Value$33.35

Total Shares325

Combined PnL-$18.33

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 78¢	$113.1	$126.88	+$13.78	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$16.06	$18.25	+$2.19	18% 49-220 (269)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$31.9	$10.88	-$21.03	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$3.16	$3.59	+$0.43	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$0.56	$0.63	+$0.08	55% 658-540 (1198)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$113.1

Value

$126.88

PnL

+$13.78

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.06

Value

$18.25

PnL

+$2.19

Record

18%

49-220 (269)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.9

Value

$10.88

PnL

-$21.03

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.16

Value

$3.59

PnL

+$0.43

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.63

PnL

+$0.08

Record

55%

658-540 (1198)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.