Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 78¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 29%
$1.2K
$9.15
71.7¢ → 77.5¢
+8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 78%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 73¢ | $729.97 | $709.97 | -$20 | 55% 718-583 (1301) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 27¢ | $304.21 | $323.73 | +$19.52 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 59.5¢ | $63.1 | $82.15 | +$19.05 | 57% 4056-3070 (7126) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $56.25 | $57.81 | +$1.56 | 50% 3299-3255 (6554) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 40.5¢ | $42.9 | $30.74 | -$12.16 | 49% 684-724 (1408) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100 | Underavg 28¢ | $24.42 | $25.29 | +$0.87 | 61% 928-594 (1522) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 26¢ | $2.6 | $2.9 | +$0.3 | 48% 1420-1557 (2977) |
Invested
$729.97
Value
$709.97
PnL
-$20
Record
55%
718-583 (1301)
Invested
$304.21
Value
$323.73
PnL
+$19.52
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
RN1<$100Invested
$63.1
Value
$82.15
PnL
+$19.05
Record
57%
4056-3070 (7126)
Invested
$56.25
Value
$57.81
PnL
+$1.56
Record
50%
3299-3255 (6554)
Invested
$42.9
Value
$30.74
PnL
-$12.16
Record
49%
684-724 (1408)
Invested
$24.42
Value
$25.29
PnL
+$0.87
Record
61%
928-594 (1522)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.9
PnL
+$0.3
Record
48%
1420-1557 (2977)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.