Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 233.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 76¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 40%
1 arb excluded
$1.9K
$43.76
79.8¢ → 75.5¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 76%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 76.2¢ | $967.8 | $802.35 | +$39.24 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100 | Underavg 84.6¢ | $718.2 | $607.79 | -$110.4 | 55% 718-583 (1301) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 84.6¢ | $455.7 | $466.04 | +$10.35 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 25¢ | $262.5 | $141.75 | -$120.75 | |
 RN1 | Underavg 87.4¢ | $463.98 | $393.81 | -$47.95 | 57% 4056-3070 (7126) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Overavg 12.5¢ | $41.35 | $80.75 | +$39.4 | 50% 3299-3255 (6554) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Overavg 15¢ | $18.75 | $30.63 | +$11.88 | 60% 2603-1711 (4314) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 11¢ | $0.91 | $2.11 | +$1.2 | 49% 684-724 (1408) |
Invested
$967.8
Value
$802.35
PnL
+$39.24
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$718.2
Value
$607.79
PnL
-$110.4
Record
55%
718-583 (1301)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$463.98
Value
$393.81
PnL
-$47.95
Record
57%
4056-3070 (7126)
Invested
$41.35
Value
$80.75
PnL
+$39.4
Record
50%
3299-3255 (6554)
Invested
$18.75
Value
$30.63
PnL
+$11.88
Record
60%
2603-1711 (4314)
Invested
$0.91
Value
$2.11
PnL
+$1.2
Record
49%
684-724 (1408)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.