Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Rockets, while the market favors Warriors (53%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Rockets (-6.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (100%) · Rockets at 48¢ · $193 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Rockets
6
Rockets 100%
$193.1
$9.56
44.9¢ → 47.5¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidRockets at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 45.9¢ | $80.42 | $83.2 | +$2.78 | 46% 255-304 (559) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 44¢ | $51.3 | $54.8 | +$3.5 | 57% 3183-2408 (5591) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 44¢ | $35.2 | $37.6 | +$2.4 | 48% 1202-1284 (2486) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 44¢ | $11 | $11.75 | +$0.75 | 49% 629-666 (1295) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 47¢ | $3.37 | $3.4 | +$0.04 | 51% 1779-1735 (3514) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $2.35 | +$0.1 | 30% 358-845 (1203) |
Invested
$80.42
Value
$83.2
PnL
+$2.78
Record
46%
255-304 (559)
Invested
$51.3
Value
$54.8
PnL
+$3.5
Record
57%
3183-2408 (5591)
Invested
$35.2
Value
$37.6
PnL
+$2.4
Record
48%
1202-1284 (2486)
Invested
$11
Value
$11.75
PnL
+$0.75
Record
49%
629-666 (1295)
Invested
$3.37
Value
$3.4
PnL
+$0.04
Record
51%
1779-1735 (3514)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$0.1
Record
30%
358-845 (1203)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.