Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Clippers, while the market favors Suns (94%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Clippers (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (50%) · Clippers at 6.5¢ · $112 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Clippers
6
Clippers 50%
$112.26
$12.72
Research grade
AvoidClippers at 7%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Suns 94%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR<$100 | Clippersavg 37¢ | $42.86 | $42.86 | -$0 | 42% 574-809 (1383) |
 RN1<$100 | Sunsavg 59¢ | $29.98 | $42.68 | +$12.7 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Sunsavg 62¢ | $16.66 | $15.85 | -$0.81 | 49% 446-472 (918) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Clippersavg 36¢ | $3.6 | $3.7 | +$0.1 | 29% 307-748 (1055) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Clippersavg 36¢ | $3.6 | $3.7 | +$0.1 | 49% 220-228 (448) |
65 6512395314597884<$100 | Sunsavg 69¢ | $2.85 | $3.47 | +$0.62 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
Invested
$42.86
Value
$42.86
PnL
-$0
Record
42%
574-809 (1383)
RN1<$100Invested
$29.98
Value
$42.68
PnL
+$12.7
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$16.66
Value
$15.85
PnL
-$0.81
Record
49%
446-472 (918)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.7
PnL
+$0.1
Record
29%
307-748 (1055)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.7
PnL
+$0.1
Record
49%
220-228 (448)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$3.47
PnL
+$0.62
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.