Spread: Suns (-26.5)

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (17%) · Clippers at 86¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Suns14¢Clippers86¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 17%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$4.19

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Suns14%

Clippers86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers1 trader

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,597

Combined PnL-$11.34

Suns5 traders

Total Value$101.34

Total Shares836

Combined PnL+$15.53

Clippers — 17%Suns — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Suns 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Clippersavg 90.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$11.34	56% 502-393 (895)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Clippersavg 91.3¢	$499.49	$512.44	+$42.11	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 91.3¢	$409.7	$383.8	-$25.9
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 8.3¢	$73.65	$128.64	+$68.01
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Sunsavg 13.6¢	$52.2	$55.82	+$3.63	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Sunsavg 12¢	$22.8	$27.55	+$4.75	62% 2355-1453 (3808)
RN1CTR<$100	Sunsavg 5¢	$2.6	$7.6	+$5	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Sunsavg 3.9¢	$4.29	$5.45	+$1.16	48% 959-1032 (1991)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sunsavg 4¢	$3.92	$4.91	+$0.99	49% 446-472 (918)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Clippers

Invested

$1,448.88

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$11.34

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$499.49

Value

$512.44

PnL

+$42.11

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

Both legs:

Clippers$409.791.3¢-$25.9

Suns$73.658.3¢+$68.01

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$52.2

Value

$55.82

PnL

+$3.63

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$22.8

Value

$27.55

PnL

+$4.75

Record

62%

2355-1453 (3808)

RN1CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$2.6

Value

$7.6

PnL

+$5

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$4.29

Value

$5.45

PnL

+$1.16

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$3.92

Value

$4.91

PnL

+$0.99

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Suns 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.