Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Suns, while the market favors Clippers (72%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Suns (-30.5)

3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (100%) · Suns at 28¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 11

Suns28¢Clippers72¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

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Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 100%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$229.23

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Clippers 72%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Suns28%

Clippers72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns3 traders

Total Value$236.21

Total Shares752

Combined PnL+$229.23

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Clippersavg 69.8¢	$3.5K	$3.8K	+$282.75	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 69.8¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$173.59
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 20.6¢	$680.68	$1.1K	+$456.34
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Clippersavg 86.2¢	$4.5K	$3.5K	-$986.32	56% 504-395 (899)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 86.2¢	$3.3K	$2.7K	-$595.79
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 42.9¢	$1.3K	$861.46	-$390.53
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Clippersavg 75.4¢	$464.86	$783.44	+$318.58	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 7.1¢	$93.85	$464.44	+$370.59
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 75.4¢	$371.01	$319	-$52.01
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Sunsavg 4.6¢	$21.95	$147.73	+$125.78	62% 2365-1458 (3823)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Clippersavg 67.2¢	$92.56	$109.93	+$17.36	48% 969-1052 (2021)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 67.2¢	$87.04	$83.94	-$3.1
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 7.5¢	$5.52	$25.98	+$20.47
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sunsavg 3.3¢	$7.24	$44.34	+$67.95	49% 450-474 (924)
RN1CTR<$100	Sunsavg 6¢	$8.64	$44.14	+$35.5	58% 3830-2807 (6637)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$3,545.38

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$282.75

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

Both legs:

Clippers$2,864.769.8¢-$173.59

Suns$680.6820.6¢+$456.34

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$4,517.44

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$986.32

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Both legs:

Clippers$3,265.4586.2¢-$595.79

Suns$1,251.9842.9¢-$390.53

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$464.86

Value

$783.44

PnL

+$318.58

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

Both legs:

Suns$93.857.1¢+$370.59

Clippers$371.0175.4¢-$52.01

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Suns

Invested

$21.95

Value

$147.73

PnL

+$125.78

Record

62%

2365-1458 (3823)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$92.56

Value

$109.93

PnL

+$17.36

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

Both legs:

Clippers$87.0467.2¢-$3.1

Suns$5.527.5¢+$20.47

Pan9XCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$7.24

Value

$44.34

PnL

+$67.95

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

RN1CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$8.64

Value

$44.14

PnL

+$35.5

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Clippers 72%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.0%

28.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$233.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

333.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.