Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 216.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 78¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
$1.5K
-$62.88
79.1¢ → 78¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 78%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 79.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$33.55 | 58% 3830-2807 (6637) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Underavg 20.9¢ | $326.04 | $288 | -$38.03 | 56% 504-395 (899) |
65 6512395314597884<$100 | Overavg 71¢ | $67.45 | $74.1 | +$6.65 | 51% 3173-3073 (6246) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 74¢ | $27.38 | $30.34 | +$2.96 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 73¢ | $9.73 | $10.14 | +$0.41 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 25.5¢ | $4.45 | $3.14 | -$1.31 | 50% 1562-1566 (3128) |
RN1Invested
$1,135.37
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$33.55
Record
58%
3830-2807 (6637)
Invested
$326.04
Value
$288
PnL
-$38.03
Record
56%
504-395 (899)
Invested
$67.45
Value
$74.1
PnL
+$6.65
Record
51%
3173-3073 (6246)
Invested
$27.38
Value
$30.34
PnL
+$2.96
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
Invested
$9.73
Value
$10.14
PnL
+$0.41
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$3.14
PnL
-$1.31
Record
50%
1562-1566 (3128)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.