Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 220.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 66¢ · $530 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 57%
$530.4
$0.06
67¢ → 66¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 66%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 67¢ | $197.43 | $197.46 | +$0.03 | 48% 939-1010 (1949) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Overavg 67¢ | $136.68 | $136.68 | -$0 | 61% 899-577 (1476) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Underavg 33¢ | $131.55 | $131.55 | +$0 | 26% 234-653 (887) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 33¢ | $20.71 | $20.71 | +$0 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 67¢ | $19.21 | $19.24 | +$0.03 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 33¢ | $15.82 | $15.82 | +$0 | 26% 234-663 (897) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 67¢ | $8.94 | $8.94 | +$0 | 54% 358-310 (668) |
Invested
$197.43
Value
$197.46
PnL
+$0.03
Record
48%
939-1010 (1949)
Invested
$136.68
Value
$136.68
PnL
-$0
Record
61%
899-577 (1476)
Invested
$131.55
Value
$131.55
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
234-653 (887)
Invested
$20.71
Value
$20.71
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
Invested
$19.21
Value
$19.24
PnL
+$0.03
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
Invested
$15.82
Value
$15.82
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
234-663 (897)
Invested
$8.94
Value
$8.94
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
358-310 (668)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.