Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (50%) · Timberwolves at 52¢ · $971 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Timberwolves
6
Timberwolves 50%
$970.95
-$10.17
50.3¢ → 51.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidTimberwolves at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Timberwolvesavg 50¢ | $372.82 | $365.36 | -$7.46 | 54% 404-347 (751) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Bucksavg 49¢ | $245 | $242.5 | -$2.5 | 58% 43585-31701 (75286) |
FE ferdinand2 | Timberwolvesavg 51¢ | $170.92 | $164.22 | -$6.7 | 51% 990-958 (1948) |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Bucksavg 49.4¢ | $155.21 | $160.32 | +$5.11 | 54% 3475-3012 (6487) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100 | Bucksavg 49.1¢ | $36.22 | $37.59 | +$1.37 | 53% 5746-5083 (10829) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 49¢ | $0.96 | $0.96 | -$0 | 47% 12949-14528 (27477) |
Invested
$372.82
Value
$365.36
PnL
-$7.46
Record
54%
404-347 (751)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$245
Value
$242.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
58%
43585-31701 (75286)
Invested
$170.92
Value
$164.22
PnL
-$6.7
Record
51%
990-958 (1948)
Invested
$155.21
Value
$160.32
PnL
+$5.11
Record
54%
3475-3012 (6487)
Invested
$36.22
Value
$37.59
PnL
+$1.37
Record
53%
5746-5083 (10829)
Invested
$0.96
Value
$0.96
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
12949-14528 (27477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.